The group stage of the Champions League comes to an end on Wednesday with one last exciting matchday in which 18 matches will be played simultaneously (21:00 CET). The complex competition format, introduced last season, means that there is a lot at stake in each and every one of them.
From this campaign onwards, the final position in the league phase is more decisive in allowing the top-ranked teams to play the second leg at home during the rest of the competition.And there is another very important novelty. If a team eliminates a higher-ranked opponent, it inherits that team's seeding status until the end.
An example: if the team ranked 7th beats the 1st in the quarter-finals, it will have the advantage of playing the second leg at home in the semi-finals even if its opponent is the 3rd or 4th ranked team in the league phase.
Another example: if the 14th-placed team eliminates the third-placed team in the round of 16, they will retain that third-place status from that round onwards and if they face the fifth or sixth-placed team in the quarter-finals, they will play the second leg at home.The top eight finishers will qualify directly for the round of 16. Those ranked 9th to 24th will play a two-legged play-off to earn their place in the last 16 (draw on Friday 30). The teams ranked 9th to 16th will face those ranked 17th to 24th, with the former being seeded and playing their second leg at home. The teams finishing between 25th and 36th will be eliminated.
From the round of 16 onwards, the competition follows the classic format. The winners of the play-offs will play against the top finishers in the league phase in a knockout format with the peculiarity, already explained, of being able to take away home advantage until the final at the Puskas Arena in Budapest on 30 May (18:00).
Only Arsenal and Bayern have already booked their place in the round of 16, while 13 teams are guaranteed at least a place in the playoffs and four are mathematically eliminated. We analyse, match by match and team by team, the options for the last matchday. The order of the matches in this analysis takes into account the current standings.
Arsenal - Kairat Almaty
Arsenal and Bayern are the only ones with a guaranteed place in the top eight. Arteta's side will finish first even if they lose, unless the Germans win and make up the goal difference, which is currently +5. Kairat: the Kazakhs are out.
PSV vs Bayern
PSV: will definitely qualify if they win. A draw is also quite likely to be enough for them. If they lose, they would need many results to go their way from the other rivals to go through
Bayern: Kompany's side, already in the top eight, must draw at least to secure second place. If they win and Arsenal lose, they could be first, but they have to make up a five-goal deficit. If they lose and Real Madrid and/or Liverpool win, they could be as low as fourth depending on goal difference.
Benfica vs Real Madrid
Benfica: To get into the top 24, Mourinho's side must win and hope for several favourable results. Difficult but not impossible
Real Madrid: Winning guarantees a top eight finish and at least fourth place. They could even finish second if Bayern lose and they beat them on goal difference, which is quite possible given that at the moment it is only +2 for the Germans (and +5 in their favour with Liverpool, who would also enter the equation if they win). If they draw, they would only be out of the top eight with a combination of unfavourable results, together with several very unlikely thrashings. If they lose, it is quite possible that six teams (of the nine that could do so) will overtake them and they will be out of the top eight.
Liverpool - Qarabag
Liverpool: The Reds are in a similar situation to Real Madrid in all scenarios except that their goal difference is lower (-5). If they win, they will be in the top eight and would be fourth at the very least.
Qarabag: They would be among the 24 qualifiers with a win and almost certainly with a draw. Even if they lose, quite a few results would have to go against them to stay out. The big surprise of the competition.
Eintracht Frankfurt - Tottenham Hotspur
Eintracht: the Germans are out
Tottenham: Spurs, if they win, are assured of a top eight finish. Defeat and even a draw would practically leave them out of that elite group because they would need a lot of teams to slip up.
PSG - Newcastle
It is the only one of the 18 matches in which two teams currently in the top eight face each other. The worst thing that can happen to them is a draw because it is very likely that both would fall from ninth down.
The winner will not be guaranteed access to the top eight until the final goal difference of all is known, but as of today it is quite favorable in both cases (+10) compared to the rest.
Napoli - Chelsea
Napoli: before the matchday, they are the first of the non-qualifiers (25). A win would almost certainly put them in the top 24. Absolutely everyone in front of them would have to win by one or two points, which is quite a few
Chelsea: They are on the edge of the top eight (eighth) and may not even be enough to win by the minimum and even by two goals because teams that are level on points such as Barcelona and Manchester City are very close in goal difference and play against theoretically affordable opponents.
Barcelona - FC Copenhagen
Barcelona: A comfortable victory for Barcelona is more than likely to put them in the top eight on goal difference. A draw could be enough, but they would need several of Chelsea, Sporting, Manchester City, Atletico and Atalanta to slip up. And that the PSG-Newcastle match does not end in a draw. If they lose, they will drop from ninth place downwards
Copenhagen: The Danes, for their part, are two places off the top 24. They have to win at the Spotify Camp Nou and hope for slip-ups elsewhere.
Athletic Club vs Sporting CP
Athletic: They are second to last of those who would now be classified (23). A win puts the Lions in the top four unless there is a science fiction combination of results and goals. If they draw, it would be necessary to use a calculator because it would depend on what happens in many matches. If they lose, they are 95 percent out. Olympiacos or Ajax would definitely overtake them and they would need all of the following to lose (or some not to win): Napoli, FC Copenhagen, Club Brugge, Bodo Glimt, Benfica, Pafos and Union Saint-Gilloise.
Sporting: To sneak into the top eight (they are tenth) they need to win and preferably by a good goal difference. A draw or defeat will send them to the additional knockout round.
Manchester City vs Galatasaray
City: Pep Guardiola's side must beat the Turks and by as many goals as possible to sneak into the top eight. They are currently 11th with a +4 goal difference and the same number of points as Sporting (+5), Barcelona (+5), Chelsea (+6), Newcastle (+10) and PSG (+10). Given that the latter two face each other, they would definitely overtake one of them (or both if they draw). They would need to improve their goal difference with two of the other three (Sporting, Barcelona and Chelsea) or for one or more of them to slip up. They also need to maintain their advantage over Atalanta (+1) and Atletico (+3), who also have 13 points. A draw or defeat would send City into the play-offs.
Galatasaray: They start in 17th position. A win will see them qualify for the top 24. A draw or even a defeat would also see them through, unless there is a very unlikely turn of events.
Atletico vs Bodö/Glimt
Atletico: Simeone's side's calculations are quite simple to avoid the playoff. They need a victory as big as possible to improve their current goal difference (+3) compared to the teams with the same points (13): Manchester City (+4), Sporting (+5), Barcelona (+5) and Chelsea (+6). As in previous cases, it should be noted that the direct duel between PSG and Newcastle (also with 13 points each) is in their favor because one (or both if they draw) is going to drop points for sure. A draw or a defeat would condemn Atletico to the playoffs.
Bodö/Glimt: The Norwegian surprise package need to win and look at other results to get into the top 24. They are currently in 28th position.
Union Saint-Gilloise - Atalanta
Union Saint Gilloise: The Belgians would only make the top 24 with a win and a long string of favourable results in other matches
Atalanta: They have the worst goal difference of the eight teams tied on 13 points vying for a place in the top eight. It is probably best for them to focus on winning to ensure they are seeded in the playoff draw and play the second leg at home.
Borussia Dortmund - Inter
Dortmund: Although the Germans still have a chance of making the top eight, it is more logical that they will think only of the three points to finish between ninth and 16th and be seeded in the playoff draw. A draw could see them drop to between 17th and 24th, and if they lose, it would probably be the latter. Elimination is almost impossible even if they lose
Inter: The Italians, with one more point (12) and the top 24 secured, must ensure they are seeded. Getting into the top eight is more than a pipe dream.
Monaco vs Juventus
Monaco: They will be a top 24 team with the win (they are 21st now). With a draw, they could be out if a series of results go against them. If they lose, their chances of elimination would be greater than their chances of qualification, depending on results
Juventus: The Bianconeri are in almost identical situation to Inter, with the same number of points (12) but worse goal difference (+4 to +6 for their arch-rivals). They will look to be seeded in the draw with victory in the Principality because the top eight is a pipe dream.
Club Brugge - Olympique de Marseille
Club Brugge: The Belgians start in 27th position. Although it might not be enough, it is logical that a win would qualify them for the top 24 because, in addition, it would ensure that they would immediately surpass their direct rival, OM, from whom they are separated by two points. Even a draw would be enough if a series of favourable results were to occur
Marseille: De Zerbi's French side (now in 19th place) will qualify with a win, which would also give them a chance of being seeded (not many), and very possibly also with a draw. Even if they lose, a few adverse results would have to go against them to be left out.
Bayer Leverkusen - Villarreal
Leverkusen: the Germans, like OM, will qualify with a win, with little chance of being seeded (9 to 16). A draw will probably also be enough for them and, if they are defeated, they will have to wait for results.
Villarreal: They are out with just one point from seven games.
Ajax - Olympiacos (21:00)
Ajax: The historic Dutch side are the last of the teams (32nd and -12 goals) to have any chance of finishing in the top 24. Some chance to say the least... They need three points, logically, to win and for most of the 13 teams they could catch to draw or lose. Utopian is an understatement.
Olympiacos: Mendilibar's side are also curiously the last of those who would be in the top 24 today. Although it is not mathematical because they have teams behind them with the same points (Napoli and FC Copenhagen), the normal thing is that a win would qualify the Greeks because they can also slip up one or some of those who are ahead of them. Something similar can be said of a draw. There would be some more chance of being left out, but it might be enough. With defeat, however, either all those behind them slip up or they go home.
Pafos - Slavia Prague
Pafos: The Cypriot team, which competed magnificently under Juan Carlos Carcedo until his move to Russia, needs to win and have many favorable results to get into the top 24. It has 11 teams ahead of it and must overtake at least six of them. Complicated is an understatement.
Slavia Prague: is eliminated.
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