There are just a few days left until the start of La Liga 2025/2026, and the ball will once again be rolling in the top flight of Spanish football. Opta's supercomputer has made its predictions and has placed Barcelona with a 46.5% chance of winning the La Liga title again

Real Madrid have a 32.1% chance of finishing first and a 28.7% chance of finishing second. According to Opta's artificial intelligence estimates, these figures put the white team behind the team led by Hansi Flick. The third favourite for the league title would be Atletico Madrid, with an 11.7% chance of being crowned champions.

The other Champions League spot for Villarreal

In recent years, the battle for fourth place has remained exciting until the end. Athletic Club were the last to take it, following in the footsteps of Girona in the 2023/24 season. For the current campaign, Opta ranks Villarreal as favourites to qualify for Europe's top competition, with a 13.8% chance. Some way behind are the Basque side, with a 13.2% chance of finishing in fourth place. As for the top five, there is only one change from last season: Athletic drop one position and Villarreal move up one.

Betis establish themselves as Europa League regulars

In sixth place would be the team led by Manuel Pellegrini, which would mean its sixth consecutive qualification for European competitions. The Andalusian side has only a 0.9% chance of winning La Liga, but its greatest probabilities are in fifth, sixth and seventh places. Behind them would be Osasuna and Celta Vigo, who are expected to fight until the end for a European place.

Newly promoted teams go down

Opta has been blunt in its prediction and places the three newly promoted teams from Segunda Division in the bottom three positions in the table.Levante, Elche and Oviedo,in that order, would be relegated back to the second tier. Likewise, the supercomputer places Sevilla in a position close to relegation, suggesting that Matias Almeyda's side will face a tough fight until the end of the season to secure their place in La Liga. Finally, Jose Bordalas' Getafe would finish just on the edge of the relegation zone, setting the limit for survival.

How does Opta's supercomputer work?

The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) using betting market odds and Opta's Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on the historical and recent performance of the teams. The competition is simulated 10,000 times to generate a final projection for each team.